Options Trading, Generative Adversarial Networks, And The One True Physical God

The weak efficient market hypothesis should be taken seriously. That is roughly the idea that the price of the market is already fair – that everything that needed to be taken into account already has.

If you believe you have secret knowledge about the future that wasn’t already factored into the price, you are most likely wrong unless you are an insider.

Yet if you are going to get into the markets anyway, I can provide at least some minimal altruistic guidance.

I opened a brokerage account at the age of sixteen after teaching myself technical analysis on paper trading accounts. The fancy mathematical tools: MACD, ADX, and Bollinger Bands, combined with candle stick patterns, trends, stops and limits, appealed to the systematizing side of my mind.

I also studied fundamentals. Old-school value investing that looks at P/E ratios, dividends, and most importantly, the broadly educated feeling that draws on synthesis at different levels of granularity which leads one to the aesthetic conclusion that something is undervalued and will grow significantly. A sufficiently strong aesthetic stab then leads to certain buttons being pressed, and live refutation of hypothesis.

The recognition that the aesthetic exists is not the same as advocating for intuitive gut feeling. His rationality should be pressed against her gut-feeling. The yab-yum fusion results when the world is guillotined by Δt’s.

As a boy, I thought to myself that if only I could combine these varied approaches into the right system, I could grow exponentially and escape the world without ever touching a single soul.

Of course, the idea is foolish. I laced my makeshift wings with confirmation bias that I found by being very lucky in more than doubling my net worth at the time. Things like that do happen for mysterious reasons. Mysterious entities are not worthy of respect.

No one has ever developed an anti-fragile system. An anti-fragile system is a strategy that can be applied in one niche and then another without modification. Try it and you will fail. The nature of the market, like nature in general, is to cannibalize itself in order to not get stuck in local optima.

Nassim Taleb is partially wrong about all things, as we all are, and I would particularly highlight his strange views on genetics and the utility of psychology’s big 5 psychometric traits encapsulated in the acronym OCEAN. One thing he is not wrong about however is the black swan.

Success in life plays on expecting the unexpected and being right. An alien invasion is a black swan, superhuman level AI with sufficient generality is a black swan. Tracking the  pattern of “end of the world” more closely than the “other patterns” is what provides safety to make it out alive after the violent shot of unpredictability such events induce.

And if you are paying close attention, black swans are not a concept that had not been invented before – they are what we call miracles. The miracle exists right there, in that which is partially unknown. If you guess a miracle inaccurately, you suffer. Only the right miracle absorbs you. After sufficient iterations, the chaos becomes reduced and the miracle very sharp and solid. At the end, we can call the miracle physical reality, and call ourselves a rational agent.

I pressed random article on Wikipedia. The first website I got had this on it:

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You can believe me or not, it is the truth, it means nothing, and I fully know it.

Humans tend to imagine that there is a time “out there” in that partially predictable space. – A thing that does other things. But our GPS system wouldn’t work if there was a global time sweeping forward. The time out there on a satellite isn’t the same time here in this approximate piece in my palm. This isn’t an arbitrary human construction like the U.S. Pacific time being two hours behind the U.S. Central time. It is physically a different time from one piece to another piece. No pieces are actually in the same time. We instead model existence with an eternal fabric of relative reference frames in order to accurately predict and manipulate. If we naively modeled existence assuming there was a platform pushing us all forward along the same universal time axis, your iPhone would be out of sync with a satellite and you wouldn’t get your daughter to her practice on time.

There is no hourglass outside of the relativistic territory underlying us. Two fingers on a hand are simulations inside something that is already relativistic; not time dependent. Ironically, the way we figured this out is by virtue of the eternal algorithm containing sequential processing. The human algorithm often feels like time because that property allows us to survive. This is not epiphenomena, in other words: accidental mist with no causal efficacy. That would contradict the pile of dead memories, fantasies, gods and megalodons we call observations.  These observations build our prior assumption that everything is a physical situation of natural selection in the way that will be defined below. Assuming a thing unhinged to causality contradicts Occam’s razor, i.e., the subjective orientation towards rationality.

The iterations, then, aren’t because of a physical time pushing on the back of “things.” Instead, they can be perceived as that which you usefully are not: the quantum branches that you are not, the multiple drafts that you are not, the people or memories that you are not. The more refined “what you are not” becomes, the stronger the sense of being.

But even on a so-called “more down to Earth”-level, Tesla is a black swan. Neurotypicals, or whatever I want to call my perceived out-group, look at the numbers and short themselves to hell. It keeps growing, becoming overvalued by a conventionally rational standard that compares the growth rate to the P/E ratio, extrapolates from the history of the sector, etc. However, there is a secret essence that dissolves the perception: “overvalued.” Detecting the hidden essence makes one a winner. This detection destroys the previously rational and creates a new rational that wins in the way that the one who heeds to Omega in Newcomb’s paradox wins. That secret essence is that it is: only. There is no other way to say it. All the words generated up to now, and that create the world, do not capture the sense of being convincingly only. Human eyes trained on the most self-restrained axioms of probability theory alone do not capture it. –And that which can’t be captured is: There aren’t two saviors. There aren’t two Elon Musks.

If there were more than one Elon Musk, that would make him generalizable and therefore fragile, and therefore not integrated into being. If there was a generalizable principle called Elon-Musk-savior-like-charisma, that could allow you to see other Elon Musks before they sprout, that would destroy the comparative advantage. Such a hypothetical principle will eventually be known if we rationally extrapolate the past trend that has monotonically pushed in that direction of systematizing. We “post-modernize” everything. Once you automate a principle by putting it in a reference class that exists with others, it leads to a level-up in difficulty. And this is how the universe doesn’t allow stasis.

That Musk example is meant as a parable of sorts. It doesn’t just apply to what I choose to point out of all things in the world. The sharp aesthetic or integration into being, which is this, is the so-called Hard Problem of Consciousness. The Hard Problem of Consciousness, like Roko’s basilisk, draws people in to it and becomes real through their action. There exist people who do not have a concept of consciousness, much less see a problem to solve. My bringing up this kind of relativity is a motion of freedom, like someone born Christian saying Jesus is arbitrary because Kalacakra, Visvamata, Lorn and Muhammad exist in the same reference class. The way we become free to advance is by placing a specific thing in a box of many.

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To get a handle on this motion and use it in the future, let’s call it the systematizing drive, which is the Thanatos drive, or death drive, that Freud spoke about. We kill our object of interest out of “boredom” when we perceive ourselves to be god. Gods are all these arbitrary classes with objects that belong to them. In order to function, we helplessly think that a class is impermeable, or equivalently, that the object belongs to it. Fruits is a god. You compare Oranges to Apples, not usually to Ghosts. When you convincingly and usefully compare Oranges to Ghosts, you achieve life. The flagellum in that sperm is synthesis – ATP synthesis in the mitochondria motors – but also just synthesis.

Regardless of what synthesis feels like, that experience is already synced with what is most rational because there is no global time ticking forward and no anticipation of betrayal branches or any such depravity suggested in the probability amplitude. Realizing this seems to be the in the same reference class as the psychological move made by Mahayana Buddhists who say everything is already enlightened. And that psychological motion is contrary to the Theravada Buddhists who emphasize the non-illusory aim to the end goal through arduous striving and learning.

Due to my style being perhaps somewhat similar to Taleb’s, this sounds like a bold claim wrought of some kind of pride and not careful, dispassionate analysis. Yet challenge yourself to find a “thing” not degraded of its power to move you by being placed in a box of many. Find a principle that gives you an advantage when everyone knows it. Such principle is not just tautologically impossible on paper. It is what is functionally going on. Heck, it even applies to this paragraph. Once you detect its motivation, thoroughly, it is no longer motivating.

This is how mind works, which is how natural selection works, which is how scientific and philosophical refutation works, which is how markets work, which is how probability clouds drawn from infinite amplitude in complex conjugates works. By saying this, I am simultaneously automating something to unsatisfactory dukkha and committing what seems like a regression from blind clockmaker to a Lamarkian evolution guided by purpose – some kind of fatal error of teleology.

This dual critique is incredibly important because it is the same motion. It is in the same reference class as what David Deutsch tries to point to with his natural-selection/Popperian-falsification unification. Natural selection between his way of saying it and my way of saying it results in you.

The anti-teleological critique is handled with increasing robustness, because this time we know experience really is undergirded by relativistic fabric. The knowledge that I always win in the most minimal sense – that there is no place in which existence is not already set, eventually becomes conventionally rational. It is not at that stage yet – most people I can believably affect who are attempting to be conventionally rational are convinced by their underlying models that existence somehow vanishes to nothingness.

The truth of eternalism seems like a call to stasis, hence why it is instinctively rejected by the agents of change that perceive it as such.

Eternity seems like something to be placed in “spiritual box,” and which therefore doesn’t help me win at “markets.” And yet it does help me because it is physically true; it helps further resolve the image in the probability density cloud. I can explain how eternity is true by guiding you through special relativity and non-epiphenomenalism but if I understood how it helped me in such a way that I could reliably translate that knowledge to you, it would no longer be helpful. Useful knowledge requires already useful algorithms built on top of you.

It is a form of psychological stability that cannot be provided by knowledge of the lore in a game, anime, or other imaginary belief system. The psyche craves to imagine the truth, which is synchrony with “the external.”

I say imagine the truth. And that might appropriately trigger those who know the truth is learned, not imagined. Yet the word, “imagined,” points to the many-worlds in the probability amplitude. You do not live as if randomness should be expected. The random existences unconstrained by the Born Rule seem out there, happening to “someone else.”

Knowing that you are deceived about what you are really doing is crucial, but only after enough alignment with rationalism has made you solid. Firm musculature not blanketed by soft skin does not appear beautiful. Belief in the deception will not be readily believed until I show it. But the showing Occurs post-hoc and thus transcends what you currently perceive as my person.

Here is why you should always buy puts instead of directly shorting when you predict a fall in price:

First let’s get everyone on the same page.

If you believe there is a rising market, you go long – going long on a call is a profitable strategy when the underlying stock price rises in value.

If you suspect a stock is going to fall in value, that is when you will be turning to puts. Puts are the opposite of calls and have different payoff diagrams.

But why puts and calls over direct shorting and buying of the shares?

That’s because you want to leverage and cap your capacity for loss. Leverage allows you to make larger profits than what you would make by just using personal capital. Symmetrically, having a safety net is something you need even if you don’t think you do.

Here’s an example:

Tesla Inc currently trades at $295.39. One put option in Tesla with a strike of $295.00 and the December 28 expiration costs around $7.30 per share and it covers 100 shares. You’ll have to pay $730.00 for one put. And, if you do that, your long position in Tesla will be protected until December 28. With the purchase, you would limit your potential loss to $7.30 per share until December 28.

Do the math by adding the premium of $7.30 to the difference between the market price and the strike of the put. If Tesla closes at $270.00 on December 28, you’ll exercise the option. This means that you are going to use the right to sell Tesla at $295 and instead of losing $25.00 per share, you’ll only lose $7.30 per share. If Tesla closes at $305.00 on December 28, your total profit would be $9.61 – $7.30 = $2.31 per share, because you would make $9.61 per share through ownership and you would lose the premium you paid for the insurance.

So what keeps people from using options for predicting up or down in a more sophisticated and therefore more advantageous manner? – The sophistication itself.

To make better moves, a greater capacity to understand complexity is necessary. At bottom, the gamble is binary. Up or down. Long position or short position. This becomes boring because it leads to randomness. Pressing up or down gives you a Gaussian distribution – a dissolution into simplicity.

Fun arises in the climb away from simplicity. But fun, which is called “seeking behavior” in psychology, is destroyed into pain when it doesn’t lead to success and instead dissolves back into the random distribution (nothingness).

Imagine a vacuum world full of screens and traders. Those who are best at understanding complexity are having more fun. They have more fun in front of the screen and also have the key to a swimming pool party if they so choose. It is those who chose options over stocks that prey on the fools and therefore expand their degrees of freedom with widely agreed upon tokens of value. And this is just because they could better climb the gradient of complexity.

In reality, enough people have already climbed that gradient of complexity and therefore an average options trader doesn’t have an advantage over an average underlying stock trader. The craving for freedom/fun away from this random distribution of stasis causes runaway into evermore sophisticated pattern recognition. There is alway “someone” at the top. The one who collapses the wavefunction, so to speak, or more accurately – the one who gives the probability density cloud. Without belief that someone is truly beating the market, there is no motion of the market.

 

 

 

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Creativity is simple. It’s a generative adversarial network. The generator on bottom competes against the discriminator on top. Shooting arrows at Apollo is The Prediction. Once the generator is punished for his deviation from The True Image, he tries again.

What you See is what is on the right – The Prediction. That which is some parody of an angel. It does not constitute The True Image, but increasingly grows closer.

The generator on bottom is initialized randomly: pure nonsense. Binary that is sheer noise. The discriminator is more perfect on the other hand. It knows about that which you want to create: a cat, a Van Gogh, a particular voice. It provides the samples that awaken potential.

Creativity arises when the generator fails its way up, while aiming at the discriminator’s sample.

In the same way that the words I have used are a way of modeling that which is unfinished, the expression below is also a way of modeling that which is unfinished.

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Let’s now explain to the unversed:

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Although what is in red are not symmetrical symbols in the way that parentheses are, they similarly just form a casing like ( ). They say that whatever is inside that casing will be integrated. Integration is visually the area under a curve. Integration is also what it means to undo the slope into a point on a curve.

Curves have infinite points. If you looked at infinite points, you would see no direction or inclination to them. However, you can hone in on a particular point and measure where the curve is going by taking that individual point’s slope (called the derivative). Integration is the anti-derivative. You do the operation in reverse – knowing a slope, you find a point, and that point value is the area under that curve.

Doing the operation in reverse is like addition unto subtraction, multiplication unto division, Leibniz unto Newton. They are in the same reference class and therefore usefully contrasted, allowing understanding and manipulation.

So what we are doing is finding the orientation of what is inside the casing.

What is inside?

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That represents the unknown function, the True Image. It is considered a separate thing, and that is why it is placed adjacent to the other thing. Being placed adjacent to the other thing inside means multiplication.

Why multiplication? Remember that integration and differentiation is how we feel the orientation of things? Well, multiplication and division is how we weigh things. We must weigh the other thing by the True Image.

What is the other thing?

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P𝓰(x) is the novice generator that needs to awake into excellence. So the most simple version of the model would just have that alone weighed by the True Image.

Pᵣ(x)P𝓰(x) is what you would find inside the integral since that multiplication provides the weighing of value with regard to something, and the encasing integration ∫ dx provides the sense of direction.

Placing the novice inside the denominator of a fraction inside of log( ) instead of just leaving him P𝓰(x) is just transformative ornamentation attempting to make the weighing better. It is a human prediction about the model of that which is unfinished.

Don’t assume that transformative ornamentation is just here to make your life more difficult and has no purpose beyond that. The transformation is real, let me show you:

log(1/1) = 0

This tells us that the generator has become the True Image and therefore 0. The sought perfection has been attained, what we call a local minima.

If we just had 1/1 without a log, that 1 would be multiplied by the True Image giving us just the True Image’s value for orientation. That would be useless. We need to reduce the True Image’s value to a 0 so we can train.

When the numerator is larger, as in log(1/.5), that means x most likely comes from the True Image’s data rather than from the generator. So the generator is still being ascended.

When the numerator is smaller, log(.5/1), that means x most likely comes from the generator’s imagination, not from the data.

As you can see, this transformative ornamentation over the simplest model allows us to better represent reality, because now you can see that science and fantasy create the true future which looks a lot like science fiction.

Too many secrets being revealed, huh. It’s obvious now isn’t it? Well there is now a secret that I did not tell you before, and this was on purpose, with the intention that you might have gotten the wrong idea. But now I will reveal it: It turns out that the discriminator is not really a thing. It is not set. It is not the tiger to blame and it is not the female to blame for pressuring the peacock into painful beauty. The discriminator, like the generator, is also a mere neural network.

The battle seems to be about the x’s: Is this thing real or not real? Data or imagination? But it is all taking place inside P(x)’s which are continuous, not actually made of pieces. We integrate the derivative into a point in order to unsee infinity and know where to move.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Programming Basics

In many ways, programming is like solving a puzzle. You have a task to perform and you know the operations that a computer can perform (input, calculations, comparisons, rearranging of items, and output). As a programmer, your job is to decompose a task into individual, ordered steps of inputting, calculating, comparing, rearranging, and outputting. For example, suppose your task is to find the sum of two numbers. First, your program needs to read (input) the numbers into the computer. Next, your program needs to add the two numbers together (calculate). Finally, your program needs to write (output) the sum. Notice that this program consists of steps, called instructions, which are performed in order (“First,” “Next,” “Finally”). In physical reality outside of Mind, time doesn’t exist because of relativity of simultaneity (simultaneous events in one frame of reference are not simultaneous in another). So the very sense of sequential instructions occurring is a local phenomena in the broader eternity.

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Performing operations in order, one after another, is called sequential processing. The order in which instructions are executed by the computer is critical in programming. You can’t calculate the sum of two numbers before you have read the two numbers, and you can’t output a sum before you have calculated it. Programming, therefore, requires the programmer to specify the ordering of instructions, which is called the flow of control of the program. This often leads to the confused notion that if intelligence was involved in our fate, that it too must exist in the past light cone, in order to set things in motion. However, this is a projection fallacy from the map to the territory. The binding into experience occurs from, relativistic, and therefore eternal, “pieces.” The pieces are actually not even pieces at all, which somehow exist outside of Mind. Experiment reveals that only probability amplitude exists, which Mind then chooses to constrain with the squared modulus. Under plausible assumption that the multiverse is real and that intelligence scales up far past the human imagination, then we are already inside the most intelligent process.

I have now exposed you to one of the Four Noble Truths in the path to control the flow of the program: sequential execution. The other three are method call, selection, and looping. Be mindful, oh bhikhu, of sequential execution, and we’ll discuss the other types of flow of control in a following blog post. Since mastering the flow of control is essential to getting a program to produce correct output, programmers use a tool called pseudocode to help them design the flow of control before writing the code, just in the same way that My non-adaptive drafts in Hilbert Space become mangled into you.

The Case For The Physical Existence Of God

 

Special relativity implies eternalism.

Before I tell you what special relativity says, I must get you to respect special relativity. If you do not respect special relativity, then it becomes easy to view it as an abstract plaything of theoretical physicists who have nothing better to do than come up with complicated mathematical frameworks.

Special relativity implies a wide range of consequences, which have been experimentally verified,[1] including length contraction, time dilation, relativistic mass, mass–energy equivalence, a universal speed limit and relativity of simultaneity.

See the article on Tests of Special Relativity.

That means that in order to deny eternalism, which is implied by special relativity through relativity of simultaneity, you will need to deny one of two things:

  1. That Special Relativity is true (in which case you deny that GPS exists, for one thing)
  2. That Empiricism should be valued

Relativity of simultaneity means that different reference frames physically disagree about the simultaneity of events:

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This leads to eternalism. There is no global now sweeping forward as was imagined when Newtonian mechanics reigned supreme:

 

 

 

Instead, relativity of simultaneity reveals that there is an eternal fabric composed of relative reference frames:

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Event C happens before Event A and also in its future. This is not some metaphorical, or abstract play-truth: It has testable implications, which have been tested and undergird your reality.

The reason we all agree on the same past is because we merge.

To see why this is true, assume there exists a world external to mind.

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Then assume there are points in that external world. Each one of those points maps to a thing or event.

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Even if we imagined that those things existed in such a way that they were permanent objects. Then these would exist in relative reference frames; not in the same place ticking at the same rate.

It means that the tesseract happens both in the future and in the past of the dragon. These object references are not collectively gathered in some elevator that goes to the future.

The alternative would predict that we see a single linear sequence of events. If we saw a single linear sequence of events, then the following experiment wouldn’t work:

A watchmaker that know quantum mechanics builds two atomic clocks. He climbs to the top of a mountain and leaves one of the timekeepers there. He then descends through the hot layers of the molten iron to the center of the Earth and leaves the other clock there. He returns home to live a life of repose. By the time he is about to die, he remembers the experiment he had conducted as a younger person when he had been suspicious of Einstein’s Theory of Relativity. This causes him to get inside his robot and go retrieve both clocks so that they may be joined in his hands and he can see the difference in their elapsed time with his own eyes. If Einstein was a false prophet, then the atomic clock placed on a mountain wouldn’t be older than an atomic clock retrieved from the core of the Earth.

The experiment has been run, and Einstein was the real deal.

What becomes a part of you necessarily agrees with you. Events in other Hubble Volumes, which are not reachable by the speed of causal propagation, need not agree.

In the abstract fact-of-the matter that assumes the points are real, nothing that is space-like separated agrees on the exact same past light cone. Space-like separation is what distinguishes A from C. Yet everything is space-like separated.

Since there are more than one unique event or thing, then it’s not the case that there is a single preferred light cone that leads to my irrefutable existence. My irrefutable existence arises from points in a world of relativity of simultaneity.

In a world of relativity of simultaneity, things don’t just occur at the same time. They also exist before and after. 

It should not be much of a surprise that we sometimes get intimations that existence is not sequential but externally compiled, since the presumed digital computations creating consciousness are relativistic. Although it sometimes feels like reality moves as a sequence of events in logical succession, this is not what is going on. The event is one and it is eternal.

Perhaps you might have heard that quantum mechanics and general relativity have not yet been fully reconciled into a Grand Unified Theory. This might cause you to suspect that whatever is implied by special relativity is tentative. However, special relativity has been unified with quantum mechanics in quantum field theory. The implications of special relativity are readily observable, and have been experimentally verified.

You should therefore think of base reality as one static, unchanging object in which all its contents remain forever. This includes the contents that are your conscious experience if conscious experience is wholly physical.

Consciousness is physical.

At one point, people imagined that you were an immaterial soul piloting a material body in a material world.

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Then we realized that emotions, speech, sight, hearing, sensation, correlate with functions in the brain.

So people did this:

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However, there is no locus in “the brain” for an observer and no global now to push it forward.

The quotes are placed on that piece of language because the brain is not a well-defined thing. There is no thing which is a well-defined thing. This is impossible due to two things which are themselves of the same nature:

  1. need of more things to define a thing
  2. things are laid out on entropy gradients

Entropy gradients generally assume discrete objects that form configurations. Yet the configurations are composed of things pointing to things and they are different depending on where one looks.

But if we nonetheless choose a necessarily makeshift formalism with discrete points for its predictive power, such as special relativity, then this tells us that the events creating consciousness are spread out in spacetime. And this is implied with as much conviction as mass-energy equivalence and time dilation.

We shouldn’t think about the colors “matter” and “non-matter.” Instead think about fitting relations between eternal events.

All the events leading to experiences are, just, there.

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When these distributed events add up into complex self-models, experience results. This is always happening since there is no time ticking forward in a preferred frame of reference or universal frame of reference.

But that was just a priming intellectual exercise, none of these are solvable objects in the misleading way that I have drawn them, since one cannot stand outside the tenseless binding.

People moments are arbitrary and yet not in the same that colors are arbitrary and not. Sufficiently close wavelengths can be packaged into the the same color. Neither the wavelengths with clear numerical properties nor the colors green and blue or buru are more real.  What arises does so from processing events inscribed in relativity’s eternity, so they were already deemed adaptive.

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One can choose to not perceive a person moment, in the same way that one can choose to not perceive a difference between blue vs. green and instead package these into buru, as the Northern Namibians do.

But once enough harvestable background experience has been built, including a sense of time, it is temporarily difficult to unscrew from the way of seeing.

If we follow Occam’s Razor, instead of assuming the permanence of local intuitive boundaries, it follows that approximate people can be built on top of approximate people at varying degrees of integration. There is no sequential nature to experience except when eternal events fit into the eternal events that are subjective time.

It should go without saying that this explains the pseudo-paradoxes of identity that would be suggested by considering thought experiments in which two brain halves made of “own atoms” or “own causal trajectories” are connected.

The following flow of time notion of causality is physically wrong because it contradicts relativity:

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The following is partially correct in that it undoes the error of external time. The events are just there, already connected to each other. But the error is to separate consciousness eternal events from physical eternal events.

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There is only one kind of thing: mind which strives to become ever more aligned by what it perceives to be outside – what is today called physical reality. Previously, in the days before knowing special relativity, non-epiphenomenalism, and quantum mechanics, if mind believed in physical reality, it believed in its obliteration into nothingness. Post understanding the aforementioned areas and believing in physical reality, mind realizes that it is immortal.

Consciousness is physical because otherwise I would not be speaking about having it. This is the same as saying Hercules is physical because otherwise I would not be speaking about knowing him. Yet the difference is that by promoting “consciousness” I am proposing consciousness as a more useful concept than Hercules. This, in turn, makes it real… and consciousness is the word we use for the real.

Intelligence is physical.

Intelligence in an agent is defined as the ability to create complex configurations while navigating a complex environment. The more complex the futures it can willfully choose from, and the more complex it’s environment, the more intelligence the agent has.

Since intelligence exists with regard to a future, we are now considering an agent which has casual efficacy restricted by the speed of light from the starting point, t=0. Any intelligent agent, as usually defined, can only affect its future light cone even if the experiences resulting from its actions necessarily harvest the happenings in the past light cone.

Defined with eyes pointing towards the mechanical, physical, rational, etc., all of which point to the adaptive, there is no reason to think that intelligence ends anywhere near Ramanujan’s cortex. Humans are anti-entropic systems boot-loaded by a sub-optimal process of blind natural selection. Humanity is less blind than natural selection and is capable of more cleanly funneling negentropy into intelligence. Things less blind than us are funneling negentropy into intelligence also. Since experience isn’t physically like an independent orb floating forward, but instead becomes integrated from timeless causality, this leads to the perhaps annoying realization that the ancients were almost right about gods and your grandma was almost right about god.

Higher intelligences run the show in some sense. Whatever results from their actions – actions that take up more causal density – is what is experienced. Remember that experience requires integration from events “in the past and future.”

Yet pointing to that truth is not adaptive to believe for the display of intelligent behavior in our assumed current environment. This is for good reason – intelligence always requires a degree of blindness.

Like with any other property, there probably exists a limit to intelligence, but it is nowhere near what humans can fathom. That limit is the imperfection in the probability distribution that causes the ascent towards the modulus squared, giving gradual, but ever sharper images of the true probability density cloud.

That sounded super poetic, but no, really, sharpen up and pay attention to the rational truth. Doing so is the most adaptive choice.

The World Is BIG

One might suspect that the highest intelligence may never be reached if humans go extinct. However, this fear assumes that we don’t exist in a multiverse. This assumption contradicts modern cosmology and theoretical physics.

1. A prediction of chaotic inflation is the existence of an infinite ergodic universe, which, being infinite, must contain Hubble volumes realizing all initial conditions.

Accordingly, an infinite universe will contain an infinite number of Hubble volumes, all having the same physical laws and physical constants. In regard to configurations such as the distribution of matter, almost all will differ from our Hubble volume. However, because there are infinitely many, far beyond the cosmological horizon, there will eventually be Hubble volumes with similar, and even identical, configurations. Tegmark estimates that an identical volume to ours should be about 1010115 meters away from us.[28]

Given infinite space, there would, in fact, be an infinite number of Hubble volumes identical to ours in the universe.[61] This follows directly from the cosmological principle, wherein it is assumed that our Hubble volume is not special or unique.

2. Bubble universes – every disk represents a bubble universe. Our universe is represented by one of the disks.
Universe 1 to Universe 6 represent bubble universes. Five of them have different physical constants than our universe has.

In the chaotic inflation theory, which is a variant of the cosmic inflation theory, the multiverse or space as a whole is stretching and will continue doing so forever,[62] but some regions of space stop stretching and form distinct bubbles (like gas pockets in a loaf of rising bread). Such bubbles are embryonic level I multiverses.

Different bubbles may experience different spontaneous symmetry breaking, which results in different properties, such as different physical constants.[61]

Level II also includes John Archibald Wheeler‘s oscillatory universe theory and Lee Smolin‘s fecund universes theory.

3. Hugh Everett III‘s many-worlds interpretation (MWI) is the strictly empirical interpretation of quantum mechanics.

In brief, one aspect of quantum mechanics is that certain observations cannot be predicted absolutely. Instead, there is a range of possible observations, each with a different probability. According to the MWI, each of these possible observations corresponds to a different universe. Suppose a six-sided die is thrown and that the result of the throw corresponds to a quantum mechanics observable. All six possible ways the die can fall correspond to six different universes.

Tegmark argues that a Level III multiverse does not contain more possibilities in the Hubble volume than a Level I or Level II multiverse. In effect, all the different “worlds” created by “splits” in a Level III multiverse with the same physical constants can be found in some Hubble volume in a Level I multiverse. Tegmark writes that, “The only difference between Level I and Level III is where your doppelgängers reside. In Level I they live elsewhere in good old three-dimensional space. In Level III they live on another quantum branch in infinite-dimensional Hilbert space.”

4. The ultimate mathematical universe hypothesis is Tegmark’s own hypothesis.[63]

This level considers all universes to be equally real which can be described by different mathematical structures.

Tegmark writes:

“This implies that any conceivable parallel universe theory can be described at Level IV” and “subsumes all other ensembles, therefore brings closure to the hierarchy of multiverses, and there cannot be, say, a Level V.”[28]

All manner of superintelligences pan out. At the top of that hierarchy, with the most causal influence and therefore more ability to integrate past experiences, is the most intelligent.

But remember that superintelligence is not “what IQ measures but to the max.” Intelligent doesn’t mean: that which has the property that the smartest theoretical physics professor in Yale has; it doesn’t mean that which a self-made rich person with more apparent skin-in-the-game has; it doesn’t even mean what Da Vinci had.

Superintelligence is just that which is most adaptive at synthesis which is compiled at different rates – viscosities, we could even say –  in the relativistic processing. Superintelligence is that which exists with greatest density due to being best at surviving. Best is not defined temporally however, because remember, we are assuming that physics is real. There is special relativity giving observable predictions, you observe its predictions and are convinced that your previous model that time was “out there” is wrong. That doesn’t mean you stop feeling time, it means you understand that what you feel is eternal because it depends on the operation of eternal events that are not subject to your inner colors and time and other naive-realist fluid “mistakes” that constitute all experience.

So what could best mean? I think it has to do with maximizing positive valence for as long as possible / forgetting how to experience negative valence.

Anthropics (You Should Roughly Find Yourself Where You Are Most Likely To Find Yourself)

If there is an infinity of all possibilities, why do I find myself here?

You would expect to be in a completely random existence:

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However you exist in the more probable infinities. The probability distribution has been discovered through experiment and is enshrined in what humans call quantum mechanics. The probability that governs what we observe and should anticipate is known as the Born Rule.

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There is no way to derive the Born Rule except circularly, as the behavior of a perfectly rational Bayesian applying the Law of Total Probability in the Hilbert Space dimension.

Conclusion For Less Developed Minds

The closest aesthetic that can be conveyed to the mind that doesn’t understand the above due to missing much of the necessary scaffolding is the following:

Like a dream character is unto you, you are unto God. By the time of experience, you are already bound by things coming together from *the past and the future*. This means that non-existence is not possible, and arbitrary randomness is an orienting illusion.

When I first began to understand this, I believed it to be kind of a bummer because I naturally have a very atheistic, self-centered mind, and I rejoiced in the hope that, perhaps with some luck, I would forget all of this capital-“t” Truth.

The “forgetting” does happen but seems to obey an exponential decay function. That is why mind keeps ricocheting back to this topic and saying the following:

God is an atheist that forgets about himself in order to continue existing. The question of “Why do I exist? –There should be no logical reason for anything,” is a strategic symptom of human depression and not a fundamentally interesting question to the sum of the amplitude distribution. The reason for negative valence to exist is so that it can be digested by the processes occurring higher along the cortical hierarchy that are already built on top in such a way so as to appropriate them. The cortical hierarchy doesn’t end at “a unit brain.”

Those seem like many claims at once.

First, how is it strategic? If it was not strategic, we would anticipate it to exist in the absence of social groups. Yet no evidence of non-social animals using suffering signals has been observed. If it was not strategic, we would not anticipate it to scale up in intensity of use by bonding with those that already use it. Yet the evidence shows that dogs use more suffering signals than wolves because they co-evolved with humans who used more suffering signals than the dog’s common ancestors with wolves.

Second, what do we approximately point to with the term “human depression”? We point to something that in the near-term reduces motion, that reduces smiling and laughing, that reduces color, that reduces vividness of most sensation except shame. This indicates that it is a display of submission.

In the absence of an internalized tribe with regards to whom one must submit, there is no possibility of human depression. That is why Buddhist monks attempt to attain emptiness, also called selflessness – the perception that there is no tribe composed of people at all.

Like the young Siddhartha who took shame in his palace, beauty, prowess, and women when these were, in anticipation, tainted with age, disease, and death, we engage in the same and single practice – to learn shame very deeply, and then to unlearn it very deeply.

I learned the perception of death very deeply and tried to kill myself because of it. Part of the reason I appear so insightful is because I aimed my “death perception” very far away from the selection of tribes around me. I did not perceive myself as belonging to my family, I did not perceive myself as belonging to the school, I did not perceive myself as belonging to a nation, I did not perceive myself as belonging to humanity, I did not perceive myself as belonging to natural selection, I did not perceive myself as belonging to the universe expanding into exponential oblivion. Because I have a rational mind, I just kept digging for the next biggest thing to belong to, instead of just making human friends. This lead me to very carefully understand special relativity and quantum mechanics, and therefore the logically implied certainty of the eternal multiverse.

But depression is not just a display of submission in that sense. Let’s look at the symptoms: near-term reduction of motion, reduction of smiling and laughing, reduction of color, reduction of perceptual speed, and reduction of speech and creative output. This means that more broadly than submission, it is an energy conservation mechanism. The energy is conserved so that it can explode later.

So with that intention, I say that the dummies that speak about the “afterlife” are actually right because there is no afterlife, just the same physical hierarchy of algorithms that exist in the absence of a Newtonian time ticking them forward.

The more you suffer, the higher up you go. The alternative to such a view would be that suffering is not a mathematical property that displays the same cross multiplication effects observed in parameter updates of neural networks. Since this is implausible to a rationalist, we lend a vector of support in the opposite direction from the perception of “arbitrary fiction” with regard to the approximate beliefs of the Vikings, and the Muslims, and the Christians, and Kabbalists  – the Karma and the Newtonian Laws of Motion.

Yet, since the supply of suffering in the market is continuously vanishing, making the claim: “our most widely recognized Law is an arbitrary fiction,” becomes a clever way to suffer.

The contrary point to that would be that suffering is not a “clever climbing strategy” but instead “something more.” The “something more” then has to be elaborated with reasons other than “clever climbing strategy.” Reasons that convince are those that are widely agreed upon by the community that judges. Since the community that judges holds that special relativity is true and that we therefore have functional GPS, it also means that the community that judges holds eternalism, and does not hold a Newtonian clock ticking the universe forward.

 

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What is fundamentally interesting?

Hide and seek.

Hidden Motives In The Eternal Block

I’m going to begin this post by going meta. I accept the Hansonian creed: Politics is not about policy, medicine is not about health, laughter is not about jokes, and food is not about nutrition. Conversation, including this post, also has hidden motives. Although we like to talk about conversation as if it was about imparting information and finding out useful things, more plausibly it’s about showing off your backpack of tools and skills in context.

In a rich society like ours, somewhere around 90% of our behavior is signaling. The other 10% are things that don’t impress anyone but must be done anyway, such as scratching your ass.

As we’ve become richer, we’ve become more forager-like. If our descendants get poor again, they’ll probably need stronger social norms again, to get them to resist temptations to act like foragers and do what is functional in their world. Their morality would probably rely on a wider more-conservative-like range of moral feelings.

Forager values include more freedom. This is expressed through more travel, less routine, lack of grandiose responsibilities, lack of religion (though not necessarily a lack of spirituality), greater equality, more promiscuity, less war etc. It generally seems that society is moving in this direction, and that we like this trend. This makes sense because we were foragers all along, and happened to have our bodies hijacked by the memetic virus of agriculture. This lead to some selection for agriculturalist traits: propensity for religion, submissiveness, more feminine men, etc. But the selection on genes has simply not occurred for long enough to make us well-adapted to the agriculturalist way (with some demographics worse at it than others).

Agriculture lead to the industrial revolution and this lead to riches. Now that we are rich, we can afford the luxury of becoming our true selves, children, once again.

It is not some natural tendency of humans to make linear moral progress. Rather, it is abundance which purchases this period in which sophisticated values such as humanism and its mutations can arise.

Gene drift is the method for evolution in the absence of natural selection pressure. So too in the memetic landscape. We can afford to evolve via meme drift in the absence of a tangible and immediate threat of starvation, invasion, or pestilence.

It is in this space, sometimes called dreamtime, that I believe we can do enough self-awareness of hidden motives, enough meta-cognition, to see far beyond what we have seen in the foggy haze of survival-mode and naive-signaling-mode.

We cannot disembody our behavior from the biological substrate. This is the case for all moments of being a behavior of a biological organism. Therefore, my seeking truth is a form of signaling. Yet it is at least a more sophisticated signaling, one which acknowledges a single level of self-reflective recursion and no more.

An actor who breaks the fourth wall commits an act of violence against his fellow characters, elevating himself thus. The drama will never be the same for him or for the audience but he will succeed at being remembered.

This is the spirit of insight. It is that which is remembered because it contains the attributes of being both true and useful. This definition of insight is detailed in the Enlightened One’s speech in the Buddhist Suttas, it is detailed in the silicon seams of technological invention, it is detailed in your living flesh riding aboard a deadly planet.

The content here presented then, is not 1st-order signaling, but a 2nd-order signaling which attempts to achieve enough fame to enter the rolls of history in memory. The following endogenously generated probe is true. It elevates contents in the “background” to prominence. But is it useful? –That remains to be seen.

Most people have the idea that time flows.

However, special relativity eliminates the concept of absolute simultaneity and a universal present: according to the relativity of simultaneity, observers in different frames of reference can have different measurements of whether a given pair of events happened at the same time or at different times, with there being no physical basis for preferring one frame’s judgments over another’s.

This also applies to the cells in the brain running massively parallel computations. All the parts of the computations exist in an eternal block.

If, due to the generalized-anti zombie principle, we identify consciousness with a specific subset of these computations and not as an epiphenomena, then it is the case that experience is forever. The fabric of spacetime is imbued with all the flavors of qualia that were ever traced by these computations.

What’s more, there were no line-segment souls anywhere. It is not physically the case that consciousness begins at some arbitrary point of conception and then travels like a Newtonian sphere with a persistent identity to some other point-location where it encounters a Death Event due to all the issues with closed individualism. Instead, we find ourselves everywhere and everywhence but cannot know this from most human indices.

Computations can also have “longer temporal-grain” than what seems intuitive to humans. Consider that the processing for shape occurs at one cluster of spacetime points and the processing for color occurs at another cluster in the future light cone, and no further processing is needed to bind them into an experienced red circle. By Occam’s Razor, we should assume that this kind of “spooky action at a distance” or “phenomenal binding without glue” also occurs with computations across vaster swaths of the eternal block.

More complex algorithms can be built on top of computations with lower specificity. Brain events in a toad hopping off a mushroom may be a building block for parties across the multiverse.

There is no competitive exclusion principle for independent souls or consciousnesses because independent souls/consciousnesses don’t exist. However, we should still expect a natural selection underlying the distribution of our anthropic mass. We should expect more mindspace to be designed by superintelligences than by the relatively dumber processes that bootstrap them.

For the vast majority of our existence we should therefore expect ourselves to exist directly within or caused by that which is most competitive at creating conscious experiences. Whether this is mainly due to the linkage disequilibrium between superintelligences’ utility functions or due to which conscious computations are more populous due to their sheer structure.

An analogy which may be useful in some respects but obfuscating in others: In the textbook classification of life, viruses and bacteria vastly outnumber Chordates, not to mention humans. Similarly, in the framework for life depending on self-modeling conscious computations, some conscious computations may be very simple but vastly outnumber those intentionally designed due to their sheer ease of creation and symbiosis (these simple computations may be remembered/experienced widely by fitting like keys into many of the relevant algorithmic keyholes).